Complexity of Systems Outpaces Elaborate Modeling Efforts: Conversation Science "Discovers" the value of Planning to be Opportunistic

This ought to be a confusing shot to the planners out there. Ecological (and political systems) are to complex to model or control..a truly "smart" and strategically funded and opportunistic stance may be the most effective way to achieve progress.

Elaborate modeling efforts used to guide land conservation result in plans that are rarely achievable in the real world-and may actually be counter-productive.

Ironically, the authors of the new study - leading mathematicians and conservation planners - are the very people who have been at the forefront of these modeling efforts. Frustrated with continued species loss, they took a step back to figure out how to improve the system. Surprisingly they found that an opportunistic approach - informed by basic scientific information about the abundance and distribution of plants and animals, but heavily focused on how landowners make decisions - will have a better shot at protecting biodiversity over time.

"For the last 20 years we thought we needed to be more systematic and we became really good at identifying priority areas for protection without taking into account opportunities in the real world - the rise and fall of property values and who might be influenced to sell," says coauthor Hugh Possingham of Queensland University, a leading conservation biologist and mathematician. "We've taken a passive theoretical approach instead of getting out there and actively seizing opportunities."

The scientists now call for a new approach to conservation - one designed more like a dynamic business plan than a static scientific assessment. Their study provides a new framework for estimating the benefits of paying a premium to acquire important sites for biodiversity -and emphasizes the importance of being opportunistic and acting fast.

The approach is not willie-nilly but truly a reflection of the same conclusions int he network-centric advocacy papers. Political systems are very complex and attempts to control and plan progress are ultimately going to less successful in the aggregate than a smart strategy to exploit opportunities. Spend less funding on planning more on developing situational awareness. (note I said less not.. none) Spend more resources in a rapid response mode rather than the strategic campaign.

There are a huge set of challenges to this in setting up a political context (control, flow of money, ownership of results, etc.) I would imaging the same challenges convert to the land protection arena. It will be great to see how they develop solutions. My first guess is that a bunch of people that are planners are going to attack the paper and messengers first.